November 20 2012, 01:05 AM
Re: What are your top 5 technologies of the next 15 years?
Honestly iPad's seem to be a great advancement over mankind. We could end up just using them as our full-time OS.
The iPad is probably undervalued as an extention of our intelligenc: it stores information as it expands on human memory, let's you connect wirelessly, and generally does things if used properly that are thought of for well rounded, intelligent human beings, such as reading, listening to music, etc. all while fitting in your hand, but lots of things I talk about will immerse you in such information, and likely change not just thought but patterns of thought...so think of iPad as an early wifi brain interface.
I posted this before..
So what's my unscientific (though researched) view to what's possible:
Singularity..the actual moment when machine AGI is smarter than us before 2050, based on mathematics and models: 100%
Singularity before 2050...as a paradigm shift for all humanity as described by proponents: 75%
Computer passing Turing test before 2030: 95%
Brain uploading before 2040: 100%
Other transhuman tech common before 2040 including brain "downloading"(like matrix): 100%
Nanotech assemblers common before 2045: 90%
Nanotech material becoming common before 2030: 100%
Foglet technology before 2050: 80%
Possibility a singularity leads to takeover by machines AGI: 50%
Possibility of an artilect war: 40%
Untethered human acting robots or androids before 2040: 100%
Renewable energy technology taking the lead over traditional energy resources by 2040: 75%
Solar power satellites before 2040: 30%
Fusion power: 10 fusion plants by 2050: 90%
Pollution control through biotech and nanotech at a high level before 2040: 90%
Genetically customized drugs common before 2025: 90%
Water scarcity post 2020: 0%
Farming technologies ending hunger before 2040: 90%
MIssion to Mars before 2035: 50%
Asteroid mining before 2040: 40%
Mission to another star 2100..most likely by Von Neumann machines: 90%
BTW write these down folks, especially you younger people.
It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. Carl Sagan