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Old November 17 2012, 05:49 PM   #15
RAMA
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Re: Important advance: IBM nanotube chip

Robert Maxwell wrote: View Post
Let us all remember that Ray Kurzweil's predictions are frequently far off the mark, especially when he extrapolates more than a handful of years into the future. He is occasionally right, but wrong much more often. Given how poorly he and his followers have managed to speculate even 10 years into the future, one wonders how their claims stretching 50 or 100 years into the future could have even the slightest shred of credibility.

Technology will certainly advance, as it always does, but not rigidly adhere to the rate and direction Singularitans promote.
While I hardly pin this down to simply Kurzweil's predictions, you're completely wrong in your statement. I believe he has 85% accuracy in his 100+ predictions, however, another 5-10% actually exist but not to the extent of his predictions. That's 95% accuracy....no one else comes close.

Yes, he has actually defended his predictions directly to several crtics publically and quite frankly he came out on top. Even his critics admit he has high accuracy though.

The thread of info technologies is so intertwined no no one propoenet of the Singularity can claim to being what spurs it on.
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