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Old November 12 2012, 07:45 PM   #153
RAMA
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Re: What are your top 5 technologies of the next 15 years?

newtype_alpha wrote: View Post
The thing is, you have only ever cited pop-sci magazines as supporting evidence for any of these claims and then promptly ignored the practical criticisms for why those lofty predictions seemed overly optimistic -- which you did again, just now, when you ignored the very POSSIBILITY of a logistical curve creating a development plateau.

It isn't even that anyone here doubts the singularity IN PRINCIPLE. It's that your interpretation of the theory has been consistently overreaching and over-optimistic; rather than being based on a thoughtful analysis of the technology, it seems to be based mostly on you being really impressed by pop-sci magazines.
It is true I post pop-sci information, mainly because these keep pace with developments faster than most other forms of reporting, and that's what it takes to keep up. However, it is also true, where possible, I try to post information right from the expert's page, or a story where the expert(s) are given a chance to speak. I HAVE also posted from studies at labs and universities. By "expert" I mean someone in that field, or inventor, or even sometimes science writers or speculators who specialize in such information. Kurzweil it so happens is an expert in many fields and also highly accurate in his speculations/predictions.

Ok so I'll spell it out:

Main thread:

http://www.trekbbs.com/showthread.ph...fiction+firsts

http://www.trekbbs.com/showpost.php?...8&postcount=76

http://www.trekbbs.com/showpost.php?...5&postcount=83

http://www.trekbbs.com/showpost.php?...1&postcount=93

http://www.trekbbs.com/showpost.php?...1&postcount=65

I also countered the criticism of software view though I couldn't find the link: Basically:

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/0...m_medium=email

http://dirkriehle.com/publications/2...f-open-source/
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