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Old November 12 2012, 06:51 PM   #151
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Re: What are your top 5 technologies of the next 15 years?

sojourner wrote: View Post
Your puzzle pieces don't fit. That's what we've been trying to tell you.
You guys speak about beliefs as well as from a narrow linear viewpoint(which I don't blame you for) and past experience, I can cite evidence. I can also cite what's happening right now to make my beliefs and predictions other words, I'm painting a picture that creates a climate where the potential exists. My central belief is almost a certainty, but the implications of it are not. Taking it all into account, I'm talking about a time where the frame of reference has changed, and you aren't prepared for it yet.

So what's my unscientific (though researched) view to what's possible:

Singularity..the actual moment when machine AGI is smarter than us before 2050, based on mathematics and models: 100%
Singularity before a paradigm shift for all humanity as described by proponents: 75%
Computer passing Turing test before 2030: 95%
Brain uploading before 2040: 100%
Other transhuman tech common before 2040 including brain "downloading"(like matrix): 100%
Nanotech assemblers common before 2045: 90%
Nanotech material becoming common before 2030: 100%
Foglet technology before 2050: 80%
Possibility a singularity leads to takeover by machines AGI: 50%
Possibility of an artilect war: 40%
Untethered human acting robots or androids before 2040: 100%
Renewable energy technology taking the lead over traditional energy resources by 2040: 75%
Solar power satellites before 2040: 30%
Fusion power: 10 fusion plants by 2050: 90%
Pollution control through biotech and nanotech at a high level before 2040: 90%
Genetically customized drugs common before 2025: 90%
Water scarcity post 2020: 0%
Farming technologies ending hunger before 2040: 90%
MIssion to Mars before 2035: 50%
Asteroid mining before 2040: 40%
Mission to another star 2100..most likely by Von Neumann machines: 90%

"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities".
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