It's got to be the third one for me. With the metallic patch, lens flares and Captain Archer into darkness at the side.
Although maybe they could change it to incorporate other cast members?
Having done Archer on S1...
Say Phlox & Mayweather for S2, Hoshi & Reed for S3 and then Trip & T'Pol for S4?
Positioned top & bottom, in the space Bakula occupies, facing off to the left also.
Second option with the fiery NX-01 is certainly lovely artwork. But it's all the same. Just flipped and tinted different colours.
I'd avoid the first option like the plague. Uninspired. Recycled publicity shots.