I would like the Giants to resign Pagan, but I doubt that will happen.
I wouldn't classify Pagan as a goner just yet. They desperately need a corner outfielder (and if they don't bring Pence back, they need two), given that there's no way Cabrera's getting re-signed, for obvious reasons (which is likely for the best, since he'll almost certainly have a massive regression next year -- that .379 BABIP is a complete aberration).
My guess is that Sabean will do pretty much what he did in 2010, which is overpay to bring back as many of the same pieces as possible. If that's the case, I don't think they'll bother chasing someone like Michael Bourn, but I guarantee they'll test the market for Hamilton and Swisher and hope that it turns out more lukewarm than expected. (Although I'm thinking that the Mike Ilitch Money Cannon gets aimed at Hamilton this offseason.) Pagan could still be in the mix, depending on what happens with Pence.
Pence is arb eligible, so i see him back, even on a one year.
Pagan could be gone if the market is pushed high on him. Blanco is an easy move to center if required, and I can really see them going after the Milk Man on a one year cheap redemption contract.
Scutaro is key for the infield, and it's time to try and lock Posey up into some of his arb years.