We might get a TV series where we can't easily tell what universe it's in. Even the existence of Vulcan wouldn't prove anything, that could be the Vulcan colony. Fans will be left to argue about circumstantial evidence, such as the set aesthetics, which no doubt will be more like the Abrams' movies than TOS.
CBS probably wouldn't care about hewing to Paramount's storyline, but any new TV series is most likely going to be made by alumni of the Abrams movies. Bob Orci has already dibsed a new series with CBS (where it would air, TBD), and the credibility of the movies' success will overwhelm all other factors for CBS making a decision on a new series, especially if the next movie is a big hit, too. (If it isn't, that will seriously harm the chances if any new series being made.)
The timetravel logic of the movies implies that the Abrams U will somehow re-merge with the Prime U at some point in the future. At least that's one interpretation of what's going on. So even an Abrams U series might lead back to the Prime U.
C.E. Evans wrote:
I think both the prime and Abramsverse will be gone 10-12 years from now and Trek will be rebooted--cleanly--with someone else in charge.
If there's no new TV series, that could happen. The only way for the current continuity (which does acknoweldge the existence of the Prime U) to be safeguarded is by a series to be made, and become a big success. The movies really can't provide that "security" since CBS is in charge and they could do any TV show they want at any time, even a really upsetting one.