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Old September 14 2012, 02:17 PM   #95
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

Mars wrote: View Post
Well we are talking about almost a century. Once we have machines that think like us, we will have passed the singularity point, the point at which machines can design improved models of themselves. Its about 88 years to the year 2100, a lot can happen in that time. I think the singularity will be reached before 2100, if we project 88 years into the past we get to the year 1924. How different was 1924 from today? Will the next 88 years have more changes in store than the previous 88 or less?
That is a crazy number of assumptions built into just one post. The Singularity probably won't happen due to a litany of reasons too long to list here. You're basically saying, "if the Singularity happens, then this problem will solve itself." That's pretty much my whole problem with Singularity advocacy. It's used to hand-wave what are actually very difficult problems.

No, I don't know how the future will look. Nor do any of us. In 1924, could anyone have imagined an extremely fast, global "telegraph" network with video screens and real-time cameras? Maybe, maybe not.

Something that these discussions of technology tend to overlook is, aside from what technology we can actually invent, how much of it ends up being practical and affordable for most people? The Internet would not be what it is today without the glut of (relatively) cheap computer hardware available to almost everyone in the developed world.

Likewise, let's make the leap that someone does create a generalized AI--but it requires a trillion dollars' worth of hardware and consumes a city's worth of electricity, and it makes decisions at a slower rate than a human. Is that ever going to be very broadly useful? I doubt it.

"Simulate everything" isn't a solution or even any kind of answer, it's a total handwave with so many assumptions behind it as to be meaningless. A bit like the Singularity, actually.
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