Some movies are so over hyped that I'm sick of them before they come out. Obviously this wouldn't be the case with ST:XII for me but I do think it's a danger of too much publicity machining.
It's not so much the lack of publicity, if this was 2 years after the original movie, momentum alone wound carry it forward.
But this is 4 years later, there's no TV show (probably no bad thing), there's no media profile and no buzz.
This could hurt the box office.