Re: Envisioning the world of 2100
Ryan8bit wrote:
I don't think that's really Occam's razor. It's not just about picking what's simplest, but on what makes the least amount of wild assumptions. I'd say a logarithmic curve makes less assumptions, and an exponential curve makes too many.

I guess you mean logistic, since a logarithmic curve is identical to an exponential curve with switched axes. A logistic dependency is more complex, making more assumptions, by all counts:
 A logistic dependency is just like an exponential dependency with saturation accounted for. The former assumes there's saturation, the latter doesn't.
 The formula is more complex to write, the curve is more complex to draw.
 When generalised, it has more parameters.
 The exponent is the mathematical function. It's pretty much the simplest and it is pretty much everywhere.
 And most of all: A logistic function has an exponential function in its definition.
A logistic curve is simpler than an exponential curve in the same way that crashing on Mercury unaided is simpler than landing on Mercury with retrorockets – not at all. It's the latter that assumes the rockets will actually fire.
__________________
R.I.P. Admiral James T. Kirk (22332267, 1969, 2267, 1930, 22672268, 1968, 22682269, Serpeidon Middle Ages, 2269, 2237, 22692286, 1986, 22862293, 2371)
