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Old August 16 2012, 10:31 PM   #24
Ryan8bit
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Location: St. Paul, MN
Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

YellowSubmarine wrote: View Post
The only thing that makes you favour the exponential is Occam's razor it's simpler. Well, in this case, it's just too simple to fit even what we know.
I don't think that's really Occam's razor. It's not just about picking what's simplest, but on what makes the least amount of wild assumptions. I'd say a logarithmic curve makes less assumptions, and an exponential curve makes too many.

Regardless, even if the predictions of when it happens are on a slightly different curve, that doesn't rule that level of technology out. There are many more problems with the concept of a singularity, mostly with the correlation that processing power equals intelligence.
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