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Old June 22 2012, 01:28 AM   #152
sojourner
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Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

publiusr wrote: View Post

"Second of all, your math is a little funny on this, considering 24 F9 Heavies would be worth TEN HLVs, not just one or two."

Assuming the hydrogen didn't boil off from the first launches into space--making a case to keep launching?
your assumption applies to the HLV as well. And the answer to your bogey man of "the hydrogen will boil off!!!!" is to launch the fuel late in the scheme of events. Regardless, your whole line of reasoning here does not address the financial benefits of launching MLVs over HLVs.
Even if it made economic sense to say, cut up the Curiosity rover and launch it on 20 or so Vanguard rockets--is that really the best thing to do?
This has nothing to do with reality. Curiousity did not launch on an HLV. If your trying to twist our "MLV is better than HLV" argument with "A smaller rocket is always cheaper" then you're not dealing with reality.
That's why Musk himself wants to build Falcon XX.
Elon has already dismissed the powerpoint slides that were going around of "Falcon XX". They have no "FXX" in development at this time.
"--an HLV that will not be operational for more than a decade." On that we will have to wait and see.
By NASA's own timeline, it won't. Only 2 launches over the next decade putting an orion capsule around the moon. Those 2 missions could easily be done with 2 MLVs per mission at a small fraction of the cost.

You want to know what the real problem with SLS is? Not that it's an HLV, but that it's the same old pork barrel jobs program NASA has been saddled with since the 70's. It will be over priced and under utilized. If NASA had been able (or wanted) to run a competition like COTS to get it built we could have had an SLS within 5 years launching at least twice per year with tons of money left over for payloads.
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