Analysis of box office potential.
I've been seeing/hearing mixed buzz on this one, divided between WTF?!? and WOW COOL. The good news, it's no John Carter
and doesn't need to make big bucks to be seen as a success. Its competition this weekend is a big movie for kids (which should also have strong grownup appeal) and a Steve Carrell romance, which gives it a shot at the young male comic book movie crowd.
Opening in wide release Friday against Pixar's animated"Brave" and Focus Features' apocalyptic love story"Seeking a Friend for the End of the World," Fox's "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" presents an alternative biography of the 16th president in which the great orator is actually an ax-wielding monster slayer determined to avenge the death of his mother and rid the nation of an unseen, undead menace.
Audience tracking surveys suggest that "Brave" should win the weekend by a wide margin, grossing as much as $65 million in its first three days of release.
"Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" is generating healthy interest from just one slice of the potential ticket buyers — men age 25 and younger. Fox assumes that 65% of ticket buyers will be male, concentrated between the ages of 17 and 34. But because the film is rated R, many teens won't be able to purchase admissions. (The movie opens just two weeks after Fox released another R-rated summer film, Ridley Scott's"Prometheus.")
Early reviews for the $69-million film have been mixed to positive, and if word of mouth runs favorably, the movie might gross $20 million or more in its debut weekend.