My Name Is Legion wrote:
If you don't concede that computers will magically write the code that makes them intelligent, the Singularity evangelists are screwed - they have no idea how to do it or how it would work.
This is an argument that will settle itself the same way the damned "Mayan calendar Armageddon" nonsense will in December or the way Christian fundamentalist predictions of the end of the world every couple of years do - the dates being touted for this Singularity are not far away, and when year after year passes without its coming (and the chief evangelists for it pass away or become less attended to in their declining years) the fad will pass as well.
Of course, it's easier to see that if one wasn't born yesterday.
Duh, at any point in history, can you specifically name exactly how a mechanism for making something work 30-40 years in future will be accomplished? I don't expect to know every detail for something that hasn't happened yet...that's what you are asking, and it's a terrible argument against the possible Singularity. As an example, we knew of atoms and their potential decades before nuclear piles were created.
The point is, if software also follows the exponential law, it will advance to the point needed in a very short time...it will have the capabilities claimed for it even if it's not there now..secondly, the brain mapping project that will be connected to the software evolution needed for strong AI is advancing by leaps and bounds...
An article from CNN and MIT:
As I said before, this is the greatest era for understanding the brain in all of history. We've learned more in 10 years than the previous 1000.
I can dismiss the Mayan calender nonsense out of hand, I've posted 3-4 times on the subject before...they are two completely divergently opposed issues. One based on science, one on myth(and incorrect interpretation of that myth for that matter).