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Old May 14 2012, 06:40 PM   #23
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

Kegg wrote: View Post
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Kegg wrote: View Post
First I heard of this. Care for a demonstration?
There's a lot of information to cover, and I'd refer you to detailed books on the subject. Here's a history of accelerating change by John Smart, which has links to books and sites, which supply graphs and mathematical evidence on the subject.
Ah, but what I asked was proof for the statement: 'The real fantasy here is linear thinking in technology which is demonstratably false' - that is, a disproof of alternatives to accelerationism, one that makes it clear that these alternatives are as credible as geocentrism or Flat Earthers. It is not enough for John Smart to have a credible narrative; his must be the only credible narrative.

However, from one of your own links (the wiki) I see:
From the wiki articles regarding both men:

Theodore Modis (born 1943) is a strategic business analyst, futurist, physicist, and international consultant.
He went to Columbia University, New York, where he received a Masters in Electrical Engineering and a Ph.D. in physics. Dr Modis carried out research in particle physics experiments at Brookhaven National Laboratories and CERN, before moving to work at Digital Equipment Corporation for more than a decade as the head of a management science consultants group.
Jonathan Huebner is a physicist working at the Pentagon's Naval Air Warfare Center, in China Lake, California.
These men are, presumably, not fantasists.

Let me be clearer then...I believe there is enough evidence to show that linear technological progression, in info technologies, as well as others that are being discovered all the time (biotech, nanotech, etc) is no longer an acceptable way to perceive there growth. It is a bias based on human limitations, as pointed out in the Smart history. Accelerated growth is a fact, the conclusions to be drawn from this is speculation, as are any future events, but it is being supported by more evidence all the time, to the point where I think a Singularity is likely.

This is true, there are criticisms, and I agree the conclusions can go in a number of directions, but acceptance of accelerated change is only building, its not going anywhere soon. The criticisms I have seen have been rebutted (in my opinion successfully) on many occasions by those who are proponents of it.

"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities".
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