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Old May 13 2012, 10:37 PM   #22
Kegg
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

RAMA wrote: View Post
Kegg wrote: View Post
RAMA wrote: View Post
The real fantasy here is linear thinking in technology which is demonstrably false.
First I heard of this. Care for a demonstration?
There's a lot of information to cover, and I'd refer you to detailed books on the subject. Here's a history of accelerating change by John Smart, which has links to books and sites, which supply graphs and mathematical evidence on the subject.
Ah, but what I asked was proof for the statement: 'The real fantasy here is linear thinking in technology which is demonstratably false' - that is, a disproof of alternatives to accelerationism, one that makes it clear that these alternatives are as credible as geocentrism or Flat Earthers. It is not enough for John Smart to have a credible narrative; his must be the only credible narrative.

However, from one of your own links (the wiki) I see:
Both Theodore Modis and Jonathan Huebner have argued—each from different perspectives—that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining. The validity of their conclusions has been criticized by John Smart.
From the wiki articles regarding both men:

Theodore Modis (born 1943) is a strategic business analyst, futurist, physicist, and international consultant.
He went to Columbia University, New York, where he received a Masters in Electrical Engineering and a Ph.D. in physics. Dr Modis carried out research in particle physics experiments at Brookhaven National Laboratories and CERN, before moving to work at Digital Equipment Corporation for more than a decade as the head of a management science consultants group.
Jonathan Huebner is a physicist working at the Pentagon's Naval Air Warfare Center, in China Lake, California.
These men are, presumably, not fantasists.
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