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Old May 4 2012, 11:13 PM   #82
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Re: What are your top 5 technologies of the next 15 years?

sojourner wrote: View Post
You have one false assumption. Exponential technology.

newtype_alpha wrote: View Post
RAMA wrote: View Post
Here I would argue that social evolution must follow intelligence
It doesn't, though. Social evolution follows the complexities of human interaction on a small and large scale and is influenced by many things, most significantly religious, economic and environmental circumstances. It has nothing much to do with intelligence, except insofar as intelligent people tend to do better economically and their social status reflects this. On the other hand, intelligent people are not the ONLY ones who do better economically; naked ambition and selfishness can also contribute, especially for people who are pre-positioned to take full advantage of those traits.

The human brain builds upon itself, older parts still exist in it and some suggest this is responsible for some of our baser instincts. As we learn, we see our world differently...
Some of us, yes. But not everyone is interested in learning OR seeing the world differently, nor is everyone even capable of doing so. Unfortunately for your theory, many of the willfully ignorant/hyper-ambitious nutjobs running around today are in positions of high political influence.

Assuming that cooperation IS the best adaptation for all situations. On the small scale, this is not always the case.

If the technologically inclined and upwardly mobile inhabitants of nations ride the wave created by this exponential technology access (don't forget 3 billion people will have internet who did not have it by 2020) then they can wind up better adpated to it than the ones making the laws, including dictators...
That's exactly what I mean. The exponential technology access works BOTH ways; don't forget, the dictators want to survive too, and they too have an opportunity to adapt. The difference between the dictators and the "upwardly mobile inhabitants of nations" is that the dictators can more easily marshal the resources needed to protect their position and can ultimately deploy that very same technology against their own populations to eliminate potential competitors.

3 billion more people will have internet access by 2020; the dictators who rule them will be getting access to UCAVs and satellite surveillance around the same time.

as the statistics demonstrate from the links, after WWII 20% of countries were democracies, today it's 80%, I believe we are seeing evidence already in Africa and the Arab world their technological and political backwardness is ending. Stay tuned..
When the list of democracies includes such nations as Maldives and Liberia, I don't think it matters all that much. Technically, even Somolia is still a democracy.

My point is, without development of the human brain through evolution and it's corresponding size and intelligence (plus the fact that "new" information" increases synapse connections ad cognitive function) you don't get technological innovation either. Of course other things are involved, such as social interaction, environment, etc, but they really work hand in hand...biological evolution also works exponentially but over longer periods of time. We are now at a point where we can surpass it totally within a few decades.

Speaking of evolution, brain and also cooperation vs conflict, this article sprang up recently:

It is the transition to a cooperative group that can lead to maximum selection for intelligence," said study researcher Luke McNally, a doctoral candidate at Trinity College Dublin. Greater intelligence, in turn, leads to more sophisticated cooperation, McNally told LiveScience.
I'm not trying to say that in this world of exponential change, that there are not those who aren't malicious, devious, power hungry, only that this period in time is the best opportunity we've had--technologically based--to distance ourselves from such thinking. I feel the balance is heading more towards real social evolution as well, but please don't mistake the idea that I think all is well and good in the world, its not, but we do and will have more tools to eliminate what we don't like about it. Right now, the positives are outweighing the negatives, and in some areas for the first time in history. Dictators may get UCAVs (or maybe not--maybe the rebels will have them instead) but there are fewer of them, weilding less power, in ever smaller spheres of in part because of technology and it's ability to spread social communication.

Fortunately, military dictator- ships are becoming extinct in Latin America and during the last decade this has brought a period of relative economic and political ...
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