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Old April 28 2012, 09:48 PM   #67
RAMA
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Re: What are your top 5 technologies of the next 15 years?

sojourner wrote: View Post
You have one false assumption. Exponential technology.
Plenty of evidence to the contrary:

http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of...rating-returns

"Accelerating returns" then...which goes beyond the original "Moore's Law" (as the extract and graph shows, Moore's law was the fifth paradigm of exponential growth in computing...the next generation is almost here already...http://www.kurzweilai.net/images/chart03.jpg). The greatest criticism to exponential growth is that it comes to an end, in fact it does, but only for the next paradigm to follow.

http://bigthink.com/ideas/31678

A quote from my own post on another thread about the subject:

Yes! The artistic, engineering and tech strides of modern times is actually underestimated...in past centuries, there were often only a handful of humans involved with expanding the frontiers of human creativity and knowledge, sometimes their rarity (Like Da Vinci, Galileo, etc) makes their artistry and science even more noteworthy and valuable, but as you suggest, today there are not only more people involved with these endeavors, the ratio is much higher. Another reason: not just sheer numbers, but when one culture builds upon the developments of another, there is where the increased pace(exponential) ignites.
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