You know what 2 and 3 really make me think?
A scavenger race like the kazon, or maybe even the kazon bore down upon them in their weakened state and pillaged the frakk out of Vidiia, and set fire to the last of the still living Vidiians as they intergrated the Vidiian fleet into their forces.
Actually, i wouldn't have put it past the Think tank to pay the kazon to sack Vidiia just to cover up how badly they frakked up.
Now the kazon are powerful enough to wander back and steal the Ocampa's water!
(I really think Caretaker was tripping ballks on the pain medication. What sort of idiot counts on his fingers the amount of minutes he has left to live and doesn't look for at the absolute least the key to their liquior cabinet?)