It's beyond me how a TV movie could generate gross returns in the range of a few hundred million dollars, which is the sort of return the franchise generated with the most recent theatrical film.
While there is possible
upside to making a TV movie, on the other hand I don't see a way to insure against the probable
downside. All scenarios would occur in the context of the next theatrical film.
Only one scenario, which is that both
the hypothetical TV movie and Star Trek XII
are successful, is pure upside for the franchise. If the TV movie is successful, while Star Trek XII
is not, then true, the TV movie would cut the losses from the theatrical film, but this scenario can occur only in the unlikely event that the theatrical film is unsuccessful. Otherwise, the TV movie is not successful, and one must wonder, why make it at all?
Making a TV movie just adds to the risk, and yeah, there's several hundred million dollars at stake (certainly gross, and conceivably even net), in the worldwide box office of Star Trek XII