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Old December 9 2011, 01:33 AM   #76
RAMA
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Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

Edit_XYZ wrote: View Post
All 'models' predicting the technological singularity are based upon, they require continual exponential growth - of intelligence, of technology, etc.
Well, if history showed anything, it showed that exponential growth in anything other than abstract mathematics is not sustainable - regardless of your attempts to 'cheat' this rule.
Technology matures and can't be improved further; etc.

IF you can keep up continual exponential growth in the AI field (and the signs are that you can't), you may - or may not (perhaps 'intelligence' in humans is a mature 'technology') - be able to have a being more intelligent than humans, functioning. But, in any case, you won't be able to keep improving that intelligence; sooner or later, you'll hit a wall.
Singularity proponents gamble that this 'wall' is beyond the singularity - and they have no convincing arguments for it.

It's almost certain there isn't a logic fundamentally 'better' than the one known to us - meaning, we have already hit the wall in this area; you may have a being thinking faster than us (quantitatively), but not qualitatively 'better'.
This qualm is easily explained away..exponential growth has limits till it reaches the next paradigm shift, there is already a next generation of processor technology(s) ready to supplant the current one...in fact, the aforementioned 3D chip technology is one of them, and it appeared just two days ago. The fact that there have been 5 paradigms already that fit the pattern makes it less like wishful thinking and more like a probability.
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