I dunno. In some ways it does and some ways it doesnt look like Smith. The crash set that most of us have look like Smith in 3d with our own eyes. The 2d image never gives figures justice. However that theory is sometimes reversed (Serenity, 8th Doc, NuTrek etc)
The new Smith figure is for Season 6 as we all know, so has different hair and skinnier face sculpt. The crash set has Smiths old fuzzy messy hair and looks ok.
I saw the Doctor with fez and mop in a shop and the sculpt i saw wasnt that great. However the mop/fez one i own is a much better sculpt, so eiher a crappy batch or i was having an off day.
"Course your not,your not scared of anything. Box falls out the sky, man falls out of box, man eats fish custard. Look at you, just sittin' there,you know what i think? Must be helluva scary crack in your wall" - The Doctor