I think that China will catch up to, then surpass, the West when it comes to manned space exploration. This actually might be a good thing, as it could spur a new "space race", with China this time, not the old USSR.
I do find it odd that the US could go to the moon, several times, using 1950's/1960's technology, and then has never gone back. It's like Columbus discovering the new world--and then Europe never returning because of the cost of building some big new boats. Not exactly the same thing, but you get my point.
I know it's a matter of political will, and the desire to spend huge sums of money on space research, but come on
--it should still
be a matter of national pride that the US gets back to the moon with a manned presence.