Regardless of how peaceful our world is today, Star Trek has always drawn on comparisons from the real world for its stories. That's a fact. It seems this may be a direct parallel to the Federation being the United States and the Typhon Pact being China, the current superpower being faced with the rise of a new superpower.
Certain aspects of the Typhon Pact, seem to resemble the European Union
more - including shared government and single currency.
This is not a simple USA and China metaphor - the Typhon Pact does not resemble the single-state economic partner that China is to the USA (TNG arguably used the Romulans for that, at least to some extent, although they took on aspects of North Korea, Soviet Russia, etc, too) - neither does it seem to be a Warsaw Pact - with a giant Russia using the others as satellites.
If anything, the Typhon Pact resembles a kinda 'dark' EU - no EU member states have had recent major hostilities with the USA, and most are economic partners with the USA - but states in the Typhon Pact like the Tholians have had recent conflicts, and seem to be pretty economically independent of the UFP.