Possible ST: XI spoilers, but mostly my own rampant speculation, so probably harmless:
My take on the Abrams Enterprise and canon is that it is
canon, but it is what I call Second Canon. The events of TOS, TNG, DS9, and even (God help me) Voyager happened just as we have already seen - everything in the timeline that leads up to Nero and Ambassador Spock going back in time. Then, Second Canon begins, and it reflects changes made by both Nero, and by Spock, who has unloaded some knowledge on Starfleet - presumably including ship technologies.
To put all this in terms directly
relevant to this thread, I don't think it is correct to consider Abrams' Enterprise as an ancestor
of the Enterprise-refit. If anything, I believe it would be more accurate to consider it the illegitimate love-child of the TOS Constitution (which Starfleet would have had on the design board) and the Enterprise-E or maybe even -F (I'm not clear on when Nero and Spock are coming back from
), which would reflect the input of Ambassador Spock. It certainly won't
lead to the TMP refit. All bets are off.