It depends; what's the competition going to be like this year?
There have been many high-quality, 'testicle-selling-quality' movies nominated for Academy Awards that have lost because they happened to be running against a powerhouse film that same year.
The whole concept of voting for only one Best Picture each year is in itself flawed, especially when some years there are really no movies worthy of the title, and other years there may be 2 or more.