Does it have a chance?
I hope everyone votes about COULD it, and not WILL it. This is a "could" question. Anything is possible.
Is this year the best chance any film like TDK will ever have? Period? Yes.
The Oscar telecast has been in continued decline in viewership for years and years. The result of so many "unknown" films being nominated and winning. Obscure films that people cannot connect with. The result is that the Academy has stated it plans to consider more note worthy films this year as a result. It's not to say such a film will win. So much as that they're not going to just dismiss such films so easily.
I'd be thrilled if TDK won Best Picture, Nolan best director, and most important - the must have - Ledger best supporting. If Ledger doesn't win, it's a criminal act of ignorant stupidity. His performance was one of the best of all time, of any film. He truly made the character live. You don't see Heath Ledger in that film one bit. He is the Joker. His life or death is irrelevant. It was the performance of a lifetime, and if he where alive I think the buzz would be 10 times as great because he'd be around to discuss it and feed the frenzy.
If Ledger does not win, I will never again watch the Oscars for the rest of my life. And I'm a big movie buff. When the nominations come out, almost every film nominated goes on my NetFlix queue, so I can see the so-called "best" of the best.