Unless its a big hit overseas or huge hit on the home market, the franchise is dead
Really? After what happened with Enterprise, it's my belief that studios are only interested in what Joe Six Pack in America does with his movie ticket purchases (or through Neilson ratings). Overseas and even DVDs don't seem to count worth a damn towards continuing production. In other words, a 30 mil movie and 10 mil return on the opening weekend is enough to bury it forever. Correct me if I'm wrong. Cause I also really wanted to see the alien arc finish in 2012!!
What was wrong with the first film (Fight the Future)? I still think it's pretty tight. It's on my shelf.
I've also heard a blockbuster like Superman Returns required something ridiculous like 300 mil revenue to be considered a "success" and continue the franchise.
I haven't seen X-Files 2 yet, but I do hope they wrap things up with Skull and Muld well enough. As another poster noted, the series finale was pretty weak as a proper send off.