I'm not really sure what you're getting at, since both Picard's & Guinan's views are correct -- from their respective points of view. They can also both be true, without negating each other. And, isn't option 3 really restating option 1?
I think it's pretty clear that Q's motive is to show Picard that he could be a useful member of the crew, even if he had to stir up a hornet's nest to do it.
This is where I don't understand Q. If Q can see the future, then he already knew that Picard wasn't going to let him join the crew. So this would suggest that Q can not see the future or you into this whole "GOD" knows everything already so..why?..
Q's joining the Q, and being denied, was Q's intent all along..I think. He did it so as to prepare the Feds, not to join the crew..IMO..