I'm not really sure what you're getting at, since both Picard's & Guinan's views are correct -- from their respective points of view. They can also both be true, without negating each other. And, isn't option 3 really restating option 1?
I think it's pretty clear that Q's motive is to show Picard that he could be a useful member of the crew, even if he had to stir up a hornet's nest to do it.
I think Picard suggests that Q's actions were inadvertently in humanity's best interest. Option 3 suggests that "helping" them was no accidental, nor was it necessarily for the "wrong reasons" (beyond mere gloating rights).