Oh, hey... I will not be doing this EVERY month... but what the Box Office currently has ranked... January definitely does NOT have anything that will be in the top 15.... I won't do this every month, but maybe every 2 months or so starting in April? 1 Mean Girls = $66,439,605 2 The Beekeeper = $49,826,919 3 Night Swim = $28,846,150 4 Argylle = $18,510,160 5 The Chosen: S4 Episodes 1-3 = $7,937,936 6 I.S.S. = $6,394,197 7 The Book of Clarence = $5,940,877 8 Origin = $3,478,693 9 Queen Rock Montreal = $2,000,000 10 Fighter = $1,000,000 (Just FYI, Films released in December made up 6 of the top 10, if you included those films, and they were # 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10
So I've attempted to assemble a list of what's likely going to lose the most relative to its budget. Had to leave a lot of movies out of consideration entirely due to there being no information whatsoever about what the budget might be (or maybe some of its there but impossible to find since a lots of these films are too small for people to care ahead of time and/or have some unbelievably generic titles). Here's what I've got: Argylle - Kind of a gimme, it's already bombing and it's budget is apparently massive. The Book of Clarence - Also a gimme, 40m budget and earned about 6m ww, already gone from theaters. Kraven the Hunter - Budget well over 100m, I doubt it reaches 100ww. Madame Web - Slightly cheaper than Kraven, but I expect with even less to draw people in. Red One - The budget isn't available, but they paid 50m for the Rock alone so at minimum it's got to be either a ridiculously oversized budget for this type of movie or they've cheaped out on everything except the Rock. Either option is bad news for profitability, and looking at the concept, the pictures and the actual financial history of the Rock's 'pull' in recent years, I wouldn't peg this one as particularly successful even with a reasonable budget and good production. Horizon: An American Saga Part 1 - Budget is apparently 100m spread over both parts 1 and 2, which isn't awful. However, Costner has never really been a major draw, westerns are hit and miss at best (and I don't see a lot of reason to expect this one to hit), and I doubt audiences will be eager to flock to a western that's advertised as 'Part 1'. Civil War - I put this on my other list, too, in the theory that it could be topical in just the right way and catch fire. If it doesn't, though, it's hard to see it making more than 30-50m and it cost 50m to make. So that's two gimmes that we can already see and a list of 5 predictions. I'll also note I have massive doubts about Mufasa: The Lion King and Gladiator 2 being even remotely successful and I expect them both to have massive budgets though no info is available on that yet so I don't think I have enough info to really serious consider if they belong on this list or not.
I don't think it will crack the top 10, but the Super Bowl showed an "original" movie that might do well in 2024 amid all the sequels: Dev Patel's Monkey Man
So here i don't see ANY of them lasting after June , let alone the top 10 of the year. (This doesn't include 2023 releases which dominated the box office, leaving us with this weak offering) Rank Release Gross Max Theatres Opening % of Total Open Th Open Close Distributor 1 Bob Marley: One Love $75,341,080 3,597 $28,659,004 38% 3,539 Feb 14 - Paramount Pictures 2 Mean Girls $72,245,214 3,826 $28,635,307 39.6% 3,791 Jan 12 - Paramount Pictures 3 The Beekeeper $63,814,446 3,337 $16,576,007 26% 3,303 Jan 12 - Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) 4 Argylle $42,568,805 3,647 $17,473,540 41% 3,605 Feb 2 - Universal Pictures International (UPI) 5 Madame Web $37,241,516 4,013 $15,335,860 41.2% 4,013 Feb 14 - Columbia Pictures 6 Night Swim $32,003,460 3,257 $11,797,155 36.9% 3,250 Jan 5 - Universal Pictures International (UPI) 7 The Chosen: S4 Episodes 1-3 $13,907,439 2,280 $5,949,435 42.8% 2,280 Feb 1 - Fathom Events 8 Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training $13,636,455 1,949 $11,505,414 84.4% 1,949 Feb 23 - Sony Pictures Releasing 9 Lisa Frankenstein $9,589,105 3,144 $3,695,785 38.5% 3,144 Feb 9 - Focus Features 10 The Chosen: S4 Episodes 4-6 $8,882,174 2,272 $3,605,972 40.6% 2,272 Feb 15 - Fathom Events Dune is started yesterday, so it's the beginning of the season... but i am wondering with Dune 2, Kung FU Panda 4 and GHostbusters so close together.... will it sabotage the success of all 3? Will all 3 still be able to stay in the top 10 by the end of the year?? @The Knappos can you message me your e-mail? I was wondering if i could use your old spreadsheets?
I know...still SUPER early, even with the new surprise (to me) hit, Godzilla x Kong, which has jumped just from ONE weekend into 4th place (so possibly 3rd by the end of the week) 1 Dune: Part Two $254,126,488 4,074 $82,505,391 32.5% 4,071 Mar 1 - Warner Bros. 2 Kung Fu Panda 4 $153,781,205 4,067 $57,989,905 37.7% 4,035 Mar 8 - Universal Pictures 3 Bob Marley: One Love $96,329,302 3,597 $28,659,004 29.8% 3,539 Feb 14 - Paramount Pictures 4 Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $87,757,888 3,861 $80,006,561 91.2% 3,861 Mar 29 - Warner Bros. 5 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $75,305,771 4,345 $45,004,673 59.8% 4,345 Mar 22 - Sony Pictures Releasing 6 Mean Girls $72,404,248 3,826 $28,635,307 39.5% 3,791 Jan 12 - Paramount Pictures 7 The Beekeeper $66,220,535 3,337 $16,576,007 25% 3,303 Jan 12 - Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) 8 Argylle $45,207,275 3,647 $17,473,540 38.7% 3,605 Feb 2 - Universal Pictures International (UPI) 9 Madame Web $43,800,442 4,013 $15,335,860 35% 4,013 Feb 14 - Columbia Pictures 10 Night Swim $32,494,740 I am a little surprised and disappointed at Ghostbusters' numbers... but i didn't realize at the time it was sandwiched between Kung Fu Panda and Godzilla x Kong, which i think drained the potential audience (kinda like what i think happened to The Marvels --as ONE of many factors). I was thinking SPring Break would have helped it a little. I don't anticipate much change for about a month... Godzilla v Kong will definitley take #3 by next week, but not sure if it will over take Kung Fu Panda. And so far, we have, if my calculations are correct: 4. @The Knappos with 8 points 3. Morpheus02 with 11 points 2. @Grendelsbayne with 11 points (but winning on sliding tiebreaker scale) and so far, our leader is 1. @valkyrie013 with 13 points But we still have 3/4 of the year out, and lots of major majors NOT yet out. SO we shall see for sure later. I will also post up lists that show what our COLLECTIVE top 15 are, based on averages of 2, 3, and ALL of us . (That last list only has 6 movies that made ALL of our lists (including the DH list) @The Knappos -- can you check your messages. I sent my e-mail address to see if you had any spreadsheets handy -- want to make sure i am doing it right
A current update, just before we start getting into our big movies which many of us are expecting to be 2024's real leaders. Rank Release Gross Max Th Opening % of Total Open Th Open Close Distributor 1 Dune: Part Two $280,011,117 4,074 $82,505,391 29.5% 4,071 Mar 1 - Warner Bros. 2 Kung Fu Panda 4 $185,254,440 4,067 $57,989,905 31.3% 4,035 Mar 8 - Universal Pictures 3 Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $182,172,795 3,948 $80,006,561 43.9% 3,861 Mar 29 - Warner Bros. 4 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $107,564,271 4,345 $45,004,673 41.8% 4,345 Mar 22 - Sony Pictures Releasing 5 Bob Marley: One Love $96,893,170 3,597 $28,659,004 29.6% 3,539 Feb 14 Apr 25 Paramount Pictures 6 Mean Girls $72,404,248 3,826 $28,635,307 39.5% 3,791 Jan 12 - Paramount Pictures 7 The Beekeeper $66,220,535 3,337 $16,576,007 25% 3,303 Jan 12 - Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) 8 Civil War $49,190,895 3,929 $25,537,368 51.9% 3,838 Apr 12 - A24 9 Argylle $45,207,275 3,647 $17,473,540 38.7% 3,605 Feb 2 - Universal Pictures International (UPI) 10 Madame Web $43,817,106 4,013 $15,335,860 35% 4,013 Feb 14 - Columbia Pictures And with that, the rankings are currently (if i calculated right): me, @Morpheus 02 at #4 with 9 points @valkyrie013 and @Grendelsbayne are tied at 11 points (though technically Valkyrie i believe is techncially in 2nd place, due to nominating Wiinie The Pooh 2 (a.k.a. Pooh Pooh to me), which , by earning $533,000, qualified in the #8 line of tie-breakers) with @The Knappos leading at 12 points. Congrats! I am not sure when the next time i will post an update, since we entering the hot time for this race. Maybe just before Deadpool releases??? (i might also post what our avergae rankings are, just to get a sense of what we are collectively thinking). p.s. I am shocked at how successful Dune 2 has been, especially comapred to the 1st one. i am definitely interested to see how this year turns out.
Thanks for saying I’m first. However, unlike a politician, I’m going to be honest.. The way I work it out, I’m on 8.. 3 points for Ghostbusters (nominated at 8, placed at 4) 3 points for Dune 2 (nominated at 10, placed 1st) 1 point for Mean Girls (Dark horse nomination) 1 point for Godzilla x Kong (Dark horse nomination)
Oops! Sorry about that! I put Civil War in the wrong column, and had the wrong point total for Dune for you. My new total says @Grendelsbayne is the first trimester winner